Heatwave days: –
Summer days: –
Source: –
Forecast skill by lead time
On heatwave days especially: does the forecast issued N weeks
earlier see the heat coming? Hit rate = share of hot days (actual ≥
heatwave threshold) the forecast warned of (forecast mean ≥ the
warning threshold, which you can set lower). Bias = mean(forecast −
actual); negative means the forecast ran cool (under-predicted the heat).
| Lead | Bias, all (°C) | RMSE, all (°C) |
Bias, heatwave (°C) | RMSE, heatwave (°C) |
Hot days |
Hit rate |